The Data Food Chain in American Football: Why the Current System Fails to Evaluate Talent Effectively

The Data Food Chain in American Football: Why the Current System Fails to Evaluate Talent Effectively

The evaluation of college football talent has undergone a significant transformation over the past decade. However, despite advancements in recruiting technology and player tracking, the current system remains fundamentally flawed when it comes to talent evaluation.

What is the Problem?

• The existing model relies on outdated evaluation methods that do not accurately assess talent, leading to misallocated scholarships, poor recruiting strategies, and an over-reliance on transfers from big-name programs.
• Teams spend millions on recruiting, but without accurate player data, they are making decisions based on incomplete information, leading to transfer busts, missed opportunities, and wasted resources.
• Given the pending House Settlement, schools will be paying players directly, raising the stakes associated with recruiting.

This white paper exposes the inefficiencies in football’s data food chain, proving that talent evaluation is broken, and outlines the path to a modernized, data-driven approach that provides teams with a competitive advantage.

The Traditional Model of Player Evaluation: Outdated & Ineffective

Historically, player evaluation focused on a set of core measurables:

• Height
• Weight
• Speed
• Power
• On-field production

High school athletes were primarily recruited based on these attributes, with college programs investing in their growth and development. Coaches sought players with the potential for physical and technical maturation over time.

The Flaws in This System

• ❌ Thousands of talented high school recruits are overlooked every year because they do not fit the standard measurables.
• ❌ The emphasis on big-name transfers over high school development means fewer programs are willing to take chances on raw but high-upside athletes.
• ❌ Lack of real-time athletic tracking means that evaluations rely on outdated combine data that may no longer be relevant.

The Changing Evaluation Landscape: Recruiting Chaos

The Transfer Portal: Overpaying for Unknowns

• Over 11,000 college football players entered the transfer portal in 2023-2024, marking a 26% increase from the previous year. (2022-2023: 8,699)
• Fewer than 45% of players successfully found a new team, proving that the market is inefficient. (2022-2023)
• Programs are paying millions in NIL money for transfers who may not be better than unproven high school recruits.

As Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss Head Coach, put it:
“You don’t just go to the portal and get everybody and nobody comes and gets your guys. It’s free agency.”

This highlights the fundamental problem: teams are scouting from the portal without a clear way to determine which players will actually succeed at the next level.

The Financial Investment in Recruiting: Misplaced Priorities

📌 Programs are spending millions in recruiting—but are they spending it wisely?

• University of Georgia: $4.09 million in recruiting expenses (2024)
• University of Tennessee: $5.38 million (2024)
• University of Alabama: $5.27 million (2024)

Despite these investments, teams are still making poor evaluations, largely because they lack comprehensive player tracking and assessment tools.

Matt Rhule, Nebraska Head Coach, explained how quickly players are poached:
“We had our spring game… and all of a sudden, the portal, I had guys getting hit up in the portal to leave.”

This highlights the chaotic and unregulated nature of player movement, making evaluation even more difficult.

The Coaching Dilemma: Recruiting in an Era of Uncertainty

Coaches across the country have openly expressed frustration with how difficult talent evaluation has become:

• Deion Sanders, Colorado Head Coach: “Instead of recruiting 25 high school kids and having them sit for two years, we’re going to go out and get guys who can help us now.”
• Mike Elko, Texas A&M Head Coach: “It’s not as hard as you think… as long as you redirect your vision of what college football is. It’s not the same.”

James Franklin, Penn State Head Coach: “The current structure is not in the best interest of student-athletes. We need better oversight in college football.”

The Perfect Storm: Why Evaluation is Broken

✅  Revenue sharing has raised expectations, forcing teams to win immediately.
✅  Legislation has changed rapidly, leaving teams scrambling to adapt.
✅  The transfer portal is expanding faster than evaluation tools can keep up.
✅  Coaches lack a scalable tool to evaluate how a player’s skill set fits within their specific scheme
✅  General Managers and coaches lack the technology to truly measure talent against a standardized benchmark.

Eli Drinkwitz, Missouri Head Coach, summarized the challenge perfectly:
“It’s a new era of college football management, and we’re all trying to navigate these uncharted waters.”

A New Model for Evaluating Talent: The Future of Scouting

The goal is to create a modern evaluation model that tracks a player’s entire journey rather than relying on fragmented data points. An improved system must include continuous tracking from high school through college. It should establish standardized athletic and football performance benchmarks, incorporating real-time speed and power metrics to provide a more comprehensive assessment. AI-driven analysis of film, biomechanics, and game performance is essential to predicting success more accurately and ensuring a recruit aligns with your program schematically. Additionally, a transparent system is needed to ensure teams can fairly compare high school recruits, transfers, and existing players, ultimately enhancing the evaluation and decision-making process.

Conclusion: The Future of Talent Evaluation Must Be Data-Driven

📌 Key Takeaways:
✅  High school recruiting is imperfect—the best talent isn’t always identified.
✅  College-to-college recruiting lacks a standardized evaluation process.
✅  Programs risk overpaying for transfers without real performance data.
✅  Programs need a tool to analyze a recruit’s schematic fit.
✅  Teams need a system that tracks talent development from high school through college.

The Solution: AI-Driven, Data-Backed Evaluation

Tactix AI is leading the charge in modernizing football recruiting by integrating:

• Game film analysis with real-time player tracking
• AI-driven scouting reports powered by machine learning
• Genuine CVAI (Computer Vision AI) to eliminate bias and improve accuracy

With Tactix AI, teams can make data-backed decisions, avoid costly recruiting mistakes, and gain a competitive edge in talent evaluation.

What’s Next? Explore More:
🔹 How to Pick a Program as a Recruit → Use data to find the best fit for your career.
🔹 How to Game Plan Smarter → Optimize strategy using Tactix AI analytics.
🔹 See Tactix AI in Action → Request a demo and experience the future of scouting.

The Time for Change is Now. Don’t let outdated evaluation methods hold your program back. Let’s build the future of football together with Tactix AI.